Rocket Fuel Newsletter – 12/2/2024
This week’s edition covers recent economic statistics, Thanksgiving meal trends and what economists mean by “animal spirits.”
Fuel up! 🚀
No food coma for the economic calendar
While the holiday season might bring a slower pace to the office, economic data releases remain as active as ever.
- Consumer sentiment rose to 71.8, its highest reading since April. Notably, sentiment shifts varied sharply by political affiliation: Republicans' confidence surged after the November election, while Democrats' confidence experienced a steep decline.
Rent growth slowed to its lowest rate in 4 years, rising only 2% in September. This September reading from CoreLogic comes just 2 years after the peak of the mid-pandemic rent boom, when rents surged by nearly 15%, month-over-month.
Existing home sales jumped by 2.9% year-over-year in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Though 2.9% may not sound substantial, it marks the first year-over-year increase since July 2021 and could indicate the start of a recovery in home sales.
Is Thanksgiving really “all about the sides”?
A recent Instacart survey done by The Harris Poll showed that Americans by and large prefer traditional Thanksgiving meals, with the turkey as the main event. Nearly three out of four Americans said they serve turkey, while the ever-popular mashed potatoes (67%) and stuffing (64%) were close runners-up.
The least popular dish for Thanksgiving? Cranberry sauce, with over 27% saying it was their least favorite dish (though it’s not specified whether the cranberry sauce is homemade or jiggled out of a can).
“Animal spirits”
After Donald Trump’s election in 2016, equity markets began to rally, leading to an increase in the value of many 401(k) accounts.
Markets were factoring in the anticipated effects of proposed tax cuts expected to pass under the new government, but the stock market rally went further than that.
Optimism about business surged as the government transitioned leadership to a figure widely recognized from reality TV – flying between skyscrapers in helicopters and mingling with celebrities.
Economists attributed the rally to “animal spirits” – the emotional and psychological factors that often drive economic decision-making.
Eight years later, we find ourselves in a very similar situation: the underlying fundamentals have been somewhat shaky as the words “potential recession” cycle through the headlines.
Consumers continue to spend even as credit card balances balloon.
Trump's campaign focused on deregulation, fostering innovation in technology and reducing government size through the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
As DOGE's initiatives and accompanying budget cuts begin to take shape, we’ll see how these policies influence "animal spirits" – the confidence and optimism driving economic activity.
As we’re starting to see in Argentina, some short-term pain could yield long-term gains.
The OCN Mortgage Holiday Party is almost here.
Join us at the OCN Mortgage Holiday Party on December 5 in Irvine, California.
Use code ROCKETFREE for free registration and secure your spot for a festive evening. This is our last event of the year – you won’t want to mis out.
In the new year, we’ll be kicking things off with the New England Mortgage Expo from January 15 – 17, where you'll hear keynotes from Mike Fawaz, Rocket Pro TPO Executive Vice President, and Don Chiesa, Rocket Pro TPO Vice President. Don’t forget to use code ROCKETFREE for free registration. See you there.
Due to a technical difficulty, not many people got to play last week’s Thanksgiving-themed puzzle, so we’ll run it again this week to help break out of your post-holiday food comas.
This week’s Thanksgiving-themed puzzle gets 3 Rockets out of 5.
Good luck!